So what’s The Brody File’s prediction for Election night? Sorry to disappoint you but The Brody File doesn’t do predictions. Journalistically it wouldn’t be right. Instead, let me provide some final analysis.
It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Mitt Romney win by a bigger margin than what many political prognosticators are saying. Look, when Barack Obama won in 2008 the Tea Party wasn’t around. They are now. Something has changed politically in the last four years
The conversation has changed regarding the seriousness of the debt and deficit in this country. The Tea Party changed the conversation. A sleeping giant woke up. It made a huge difference in 2010 and you get the sense that it is these types of people who will show up and make a huge difference in 2012 as well.
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When I say, “these people” I’m not just referring to the Tea Party diehards. I’m also talking about Independent voters in this country who are extremely concerned about the nation’s debt. While they might not consider themselves Tea Party members, they do agree with their position on the debt and financial austerity.
Also, in 2008 evangelicals didn’t connect with John McCain. In 2012, they like Romney more than McCain (despite his Mormonism) but more than that they’ve had four years of President Obama to deal with. I’ve heard many evangelicals say this is a “broken glass” election, meaning that evangelicals will walk over broken glass to get to the polls to vote.
Then you throw in the fact that evangelical organizations are about to conclude the most massive GOTV (Get Out The Vote) effort ever in the history of their organizations and what you get is a combustible mix of fervent energy. Let’s remember, Ralph Reed’s group called the Faith and Freedom Coalition didn’t even exist four years ago. Today they have micro-targeted millions of evangelical voters that have never been contacted before.
Don’t be surprised to see millions more evangelicals show up at the polls, especially in the key swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Colorado. Don’t look so much to see what percentage of the evangelical vote Mitt Romney receives. Rather, look to see how many more evangelicals are turning out this election compared to four years ago.
You can easily make a case as to how President Obama gets to 270 electoral votes but the problem for the president is that in 2008 he was new, optimistic, and inspiring. In 2012, that has been replaced with an anti-Romney message. Typically, voters go with the more optimistic message. They vote for the future.