David Brody

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Brody File Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results


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Mitt Romney:
Let’s use a basketball analogy to sum up what we know so far. Mitt Romney won a squeaker in Iowa, he has won a blowout on his home court in New Hampshire but now he has a road game in deeply conservative hostile territory.

Beware of South Carolina. A road matchup with Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry lies ahead. It’s about to get ugly…real ugly. But here’s the good news for Romney: He is the star of his team (Mainstream Republicans, Independent voters) and scores all the points whereas Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry are stars playing for the same team (evangelicals, social conservatives, Tea Party) and thus they will split the points.

Do I need to do the math? You get the point. The only way to stop Romney is for conservatives to coalesce behind one candidate. Good luck with that. It’s not happening before South Carolina votes.

The truth is this: Mitt Romney may have a “25 percent problem” but so what? If the other candidates keep splitting the rest of the vote, it doesn’t matter. One other thing: So far Romney has made the case why he’s the most electable candidate. The other candidates have tried to explain why they are more electable but it hasn’t caught on yet.

The trick may be to actually explain why Romney is NOT electable. Huntsman began to do this in New Hampshire, suggesting that Romney is gaffe-prone (“I like to fire people”). While Huntsman and others took that line out of context, it wasn’t a very well phrased line considering his opponents were already going after him for being a callous manager who had no problem laying off people and restructuring companies.

Ron Paul:
Say what you want about Ron Paul (that he can’t win the nomination or he’s too radical on foreign policy) but the truth of the matter is Paul’s message is resonating more in 2012 than in 2008 and there’s good reason for that. He’s been consistent and ahead of the curve with his economic message. He also doesn’t come across as the typical politician which helps him appeal to a wide audience.

His second place finish in New Hampshire suggests a major appeal to Independent voters, which hurts Romney more than any other candidate. Paul may actually be Romney’s worst enemy at this point because he will continue to stay in the race and pull Independent votes away from Romney.

Jon Huntsman:
He gave it his best shot in New Hampshire and came in third. He’s the Rudy Giuliani of 2012. Enough ink wasted.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich:
Fourth place or fifth place - technically it really doesn’t matter. Both figured they’d do low single digits and both will chalk it up to a moral victory since they didn’t fall off the map (like Perry). They fight for another day (more like 11 days) in South Carolina.

Prediction:
The loser in South Carolina between Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry will probably drop out. The big winner of the three will continue on and the middle guy will have a decision to make: keep on going or get out?

What will be clear after South Carolina is that a decision will need to be made by these three candidates: They can keep on fracturing the vote and thus secure an eventual but prolonged Romney victory (advantage Obama), or they can figure out a way to coalesce behind the best performer in South Carolina among the three of them and make it a two-man race in an attempt to deny Romney the nomination.

Print     Email to a Friend    posted on Tuesday, January 10, 2012 11:12 PM



Comments on this post

# RE: Brody File Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results

What this amounts to is that the richest one can buy the election and win
Left by quirky on Jan 11, 2012 12:57 AM

# RE: Brody File Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results

Worst field of candidates running for office and it shows. Mitt has been running like forever and still not alot of republican­s like this guy. Weak field, weak front runner. Obama 2012
Left by quirky on Jan 11, 2012 1:02 AM

# RE: Brody File Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results

Come on Brody do a story on Ron Paul. Or how about reporting on Bohemian Grove. Why does CBN ignore doing a report on Bohemian Grove? http://youtu.be/F2E_HP97Rzc Come on Brody investigate this! http://youtu.be/hszzdj0KfgU
Left by JC on Jan 11, 2012 10:55 AM

# RE: Brody File Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results

well if he does make it to the oval office it will be like having 2 presidents at the same time...how economical ­ is that?
Left by quirky on Jan 11, 2012 11:06 AM

# RE: Brody File Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results

I think Romney's campaign has done a good job of masking or hiding his weaknesses until this last week. Now the media spotlight is getting brighter, Romney is getting more scrutiny, and the cracks are showing in the armor.

1. Romney is a horrible speaker. Romney's Iowa victory speech and his recent gaffe about liking to fire people show that he absolutely fails at speaking off the cuff.

2. Romney doesn't handle pressure well. He gets rattled and thrown off track easily at public events. Hecklers and debate opponents have figured out that Mitt is a train that derails easily.

3. Mitt is insincere. His repetitive delivery of canned political phrases makes him appear robotic.

4. Romney is rich and doesn't hide it. His $10,000 bet with Perry combined with his defense of corporatio­ns make it clear he's not a man of the people.

5. Romney is an opportunis­t. His political positions have changed so often, that it's hard to know what he stands for, if he stands for anything.
Left by quirky on Jan 11, 2012 11:12 AM

# RE: Brody File Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results

Wait a minute.Romney was born in Mexico.I dont think he can get elected..
Left by quirky on Jan 11, 2012 11:21 AM