All the political pundits talk about how Independent voters decide elections. Historically that has been accurate.
However, The Brody File wonders if 2012 may trend a little differently. Let me have the floor for a moment (It’s my blog so I’m allowed right?).
First of all, of course Independent voters are going to be important but the question facing the GOP nominee is not whether they can track to the middle to attract them but whether they can make the compelling argument that the Tea Party-type message is mainstream.
If Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann ends up becoming the nominee, it’ll be up to them to articulate the message in a way that is palatable to Independents.
Liberals may scoff at that notion but Marco Rubio was effective at doing this down in Florida in 2010 and Rand Paul made a compelling case in Kentucky. so it can be done. Reagan would have been brilliant at it. It’s about communicating it the right way.
Secondly, don’t forget the X-Factor, which is the Tea Party. While Independent voters will need to be courted, if the Tea Party and evangelicals turn out in record numbers (a very good probability), then winning Independents may not matter as much as in previous elections.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Independents won’t matter or don’t matter. What I’m saying is if this 2012 presidential race is won on the margins, then Tea Party and evangelical turnout will be a huge factor and will play a greater role in determining the winner than just your traditional “win the Independent voter” storyline.