If President Obama pivots and is able to become more moderate in the next two years of his administration then he has a decent chance at winning a second term. If not, then as they say in basketball, it’s very likely "One and done."
President Obama could easily become a one-term President if he truly doesn't get the fact that the huge losses suffered during the midterm elections were not either a messaging problem or that people just aren't seeing the benefits of all this wonderful legislation.
The problem is that people don't like the legislation. I don't care if the unemployment rate is 5 percent or 15 percent, the American people didn't JUST rise up because of a poor economy. They rose up because they are tired of big government policies that are encroaching on their lives.
The President is in a tough spot. He can agree with the GOP on some things and risk losing enthusiasm in his base or he outright rejects most of what the GOP has to offer and then hope and pray that his base turns out in 2012 like it did in 2008. However, that might not even be enough because the Tea Party conservatives (and even many Independents) are already so jazzed to send Obama packing.
Look, President Obama is wired a certain away. He fundamentally believes that government is part of the solution not the problem, so you can't just change your ideology. Clearly, President Obama is going to have to move to the center if he wants to get anything done.
Not only does he have to deal with a GOP House, he's got a much more Republican Senate. He can't just call up Susan Collins and/or Olympia Snowe to move his agenda forward. Those days are over. For that matter, the big sweeping Obama legislation days are over too.