As you read this, Israel may have already commenced a ground invasion of Gaza. But in the meantime, some updates. I spoke to a high-ranking Israeli Army source earlier today who told me that it is hard to predict how long Israel's operation against Hamas in Gaza will last, but that it is "going to be long" (so much for that ceasefire talk out of France?). The official pointed out that Hamas has had years to dig in and prepare itself for the current conflict, but does believe Hamas's rocket arsenal has been severely hampered by Israeli airstrikes (to 1/3 of their previous capabilities, which is indeed a big dent). Still, my source says that it is too premature to declare Operation Cast Lead a success just yet--while adding that Israeli troops along the country's border with Lebanon are on high alert as well should Hezbollah try to take advantage of the situation in Gaza to launch an operation of its own.
Perhaps the most important point made in our conversation--given this week's international media hand wringing--was that Israel has gone to incredible lengths to deliver humanitarian aid to Gazan civilians during the conflict. Here are some examples, from the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Something tells me you haven't heard about this from the mainstream media, so here goes:
12 Palestinians entered Israel for medical treatment in Israeli hospitals. Two of those evacuated were children injured by a Kassam rocket which fell near their home. The remaining are chronically sick people, and their escorts, who entered Israel for treatment that is not available within the Gaza Strip.
Further more, despite ongoing rocket fire, Israel continues with the extensive humanitarian effort in coordination with the international organizations, Palestinian Authority and various donors. Ninety three trucks, with approximately 2500 tons of humanitarian aid, medical supplies and medication were conveyed through Kerem Shalom cargo terminal. The World Food Programme has informed Israel that they will not be resuming shipment of food commodities in to Gaza due to the fact that their warehouses are at full capacity and will last for approximately two weeks.
Since the beginning of operation "Cast Lead" some 6500 tons of aid have been transferred at the request of the international organizations, the Palestinian Authority and various governments. Preparations are underway to facilitate further shipments expected to arrive in the coming days.
Back to the Gaza timetable, My colleague Daveed Gartenstein-Ross of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies made a great point a little while ago. He thinks Israel will almost certainly wrap up its Gaza operations--regardless of whether there is a ground invasion--by Inauguration Day here in the States. Daveed believes the last thing Israel wants to do is drop a Mideast crisis in President Obama's lap on his first day of office and get the relationship off to the wrong foot, especially with a major economic crisis awaiting the new Commander-in-Chief. Factor in the uncertainty about Obama's views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and you can see why I believe Daveed has a valid point.