This is the third of a four-part series on my recent week-long trip to Israel. Part 1 is here, and Part 2 is here. Today's entry addresses the situations in Syria and Lebanon.
"These guys are like a cross between Jack Bauer and a university professor!"
A colleague of mine was riveted as we sat on a bus, listening to an Israeli military official describe from memory the geography, terrain, history and political/military climate in southern Lebanon. At the time, my group was heading toward Israel's northern border, stretching higher and higher into the mountains until, finally, we overlooked southern Lebanon: Hezbollah country. Luckily, you won't get a better guide than a longtime veteran of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). As my colleague alluded to, the first thing you notice about these guys isn't their guns, but their brains--it's the same way I've always viewed the incomparable Gen. David Petraeus here in the U.S.
Israeli military outposts dot the country's border with Lebanon. Seven Israeli soldiers were killed and two were kidnapped (and later killed) from one of these very outposts by Hezbollah in July 2006, not far from where we stood. That act provoked a 34-day war. Our guide for the afternoon was a veteran of the 2006 conflict. As we looked out over Hezbollah-run villages--which lay uncomfortably close to Israel's northern border--he described entering houses that had literally been handed over to Hezbollah to store and fire rockets. Hezbollah had seized some of the homes by force, but others had been ceded to the group willingly by ambitious residents. The result? Well, afterwards, we drove through the scenic northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona, which is still recovering after being hit by 1,012 Katyusha rockets during the 2006 war. Half of the city’s residents left the area during the bombardment, and the other half who remained stayed in bomb shelters. No wonder Hezbollah has gained a reputation as the 'A" team of terrorism. How dangerous is this Iranian-backed terrorist army (for starters, see this must-read piece from today's New York Times). An Israeli military intelligence official we spoke to said that Hezbollah "has an arsenal of weapons that few countries in the world possess...if Iran does get the (nuclear) bomb, both Hezbollah and Hamas will be under the Iranian nuclear umbrella." The official went on to say that the IDF learned from its mistakes in the '06 war, and will be much better prepared for the inevitable next clash with Hezbollah.
The scene was similar a few hours later as our group stood on the Golan Heights, along Israel's border with Syria (amid old Syrian military bunkers left over from past wars against Israel). Israel seized this mountainous perch in 1967's Six-Day War, and Syria has been clamoring to get it back ever since. Through the years, Israel has discussed returning the Golan to Syria as part of a potential peace agreement. From what I could see, that would be a terrible strategic move for the Israelis--particulalry given the checkered past (and present) and dubious character of the Syrian regime. See this map of the Golan Heights to see how important the area is strategically and geographically. Whichever side possesses it has a huge upper hand in any future conflict between the two countries.
The Israeli military intel official caused a bit of a stir in the room when said he believes Syria can be flipped--in other words, taken out of the radical axis it shares with Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. There' s been talk of Syria leaving the "dark side" for some time now (see here and here) but it was somewhat surprising to hear it from an Israeli military official. It leads me to believe that Israel really does think peace wih Syria is possible--through a deal similar to the ones struck with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994)--with the main goal being to peel the Syrians away from Iran. The official said such a deal is not possible without American involvement (a foreign policy coup for the Obama administration?). But it seems unlikely that Syria would agree to any deal that didn't involve the Golan Heights--and in my view, that is just too steep a price for Israel to pay.