This is the second of a four-part series on my recent week-long trip to Israel. Part 1 is here. Today's entry addresses the Iranian nuclear threat.
Time is short and getting shorter by the day. The New York Times reports today that Iran has now produced roughly enough uranium to make a single nuclear bomb. One bomb doesn't sound like a lot. But in Israel's case, one Iranian nuclear bomb aimed at the densely populated Tel Aviv metropolitan area basically means extinction for the Jewish State (as former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani gleefully pointed out in 2001). The Israelis have seen this script before, of course. Perhaps the most memorable part of my trip was a visit to the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial in Jerusalem. where the mindless slaughter of six million Jews--and the obsessive, irrational anti-Semitism that led to it--is presented in unflinching detail. The eerie similarities between the rhetoric that engulfed Nazi Germany prior to World War II and the bile coming from Iran's leadership today has not escaped the Israelis. And just as the international community was impotent in the face of Hitler, it is equally toothless in confronting Iran. Let's face it: the Iranian regime wants to finish what Hitler started. And while the world might be in denial, Israel is all too aware of where the repeated "wiping off the map" talk eventually leads.
So it was no surprise that in my meetings with Israeli officials last week, Iran's nuclear program was the main topic of conversation. I got the sense that the Israelis really feel like they have their backs against the wall and that the situation is getting close to zero hour. And who can blame them? President Bush is essentially a lame duck at this point, Russia and China refuse to back any serious sanctions that could dissuade Tehran from its quest for the bomb, and the Iranians have made it pretty clear that there are few, if any, incentives that could make them change course. Will direct negotiations between the Obama administration and the regime--an idea which has been bandied about by Obama himself--work? Despite the President-elect's considerable charisma, I can't see what the U.S. could offer that would entice the Iranians to shut down their nuke program (although this idea is certainly intriguing, and limited economic sanctions have had an effect). Remember, this goes far beyond geopolitics for the Iranians. It's a messianic, religous mission--where the genocide of Jews is divinely sanctioned--that drives them.
Nevertheless, an Israeli government official I spoke to who's dealt with the Iranian nuclear issue said that Israel is not ideolgically opposed to engagement with the Iranians. What Israel is concerned about, he said, was that the world is putting the cart before the horse, giving the Iranian regime international legitimacy by "rolling out the red carpet" for Iranian officials in various world capitals. As a result, he says, Iran just doesn't think the world is serious about stopping it from getting the bomb. The official pointed out that Iran's nuclear drive is, in fact, a global problem--with particular consequences for the surrounding Persian Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. "The world is going to change," he said. "And it's going to change for the Gulf first." Three more interesting points from our meeting. One: "Iran is not North Korea. Iran has always tried to strengthen its integration into the international community, not isolate itself...so once they master the nuclear fuel cycle, they will have to pay a huge political price." He feels that this gives the world some leverage in its dealing with the Iranians. Two: "Iran needs to be held accountable for everything they do," and not just the nuclear program. That means Iran's support for terrorism in Iraq and its funding and supplying of Hamas and Hezbollah. "They create chaos," the official said of the Iranians. "Then offer to step in and solve that chaos." How nice of them. Three: "The whole world is looking to the U.S. on this issue." So much for any Obama honeymoon period on the foreign policy side of things.
It's an uphill battle for sure. It's clear that the last thing Israel wants to do is take some kind of military action against Iran. But given the stakes (Israel's survival), it would be madness for the Israelis to not keep that option on the table. And so it is. A high-ranking Israeli military offiicial I spoke to during my visit was adamant that he wants the international community to take care of the problem diplomatically and that Israel should not be left to act alone. Still, he acknowledged that international pressue on Iran up unti now "has not been efficient" and that the Israeli military is ready for anything (he's not the only one saying that recently). "There is no margin for error," he said, adding that the prospect of a nuclear Iran is much worse than the possible repercussions of a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities (which wouldn't be pretty). I believe that he's right.
Tomorrow: Part 3. Lebanon and Syria