CNN was there. So were the BBC, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, The Associated Press and a number of invited journalists from around the world.
I sat beside a Chinese journalist who has been here for four months. Where were we? We all came to hear a background briefing from the IDF., the Israeli Defense Forces. We could only attribute the officer giving the briefing as a "senior military source." He gave us an overview of the Middle East neighborhood from Israel's perspective. As you can imagine, it's not "Mr. Roger's Neighborhood."
Here's some of my notes from the meeting. Some of it might seem obvious but it illustrates why Israel is facing some of the biggest challenges in its history.
First, Israel sees Iran as its biggest threat. Why? He cited two major reasons:
1. Iran is pursuing a nuclear path.
2. They're the leader of the Islamic radical camp.
In terms of Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, they need three things:
1. A delivery system.
2. Fissionable nuclear material.
3. A warhead.
On the delivery system front, Iran's missiles can now reach midway into Europe and obviously all of Israel. They possess the Shahab 3 with a range 1200 miles and they're working on developing an even longer range missile.
For fissionable nuclear material, he estimates Iran now has about one half ton. They're enriching more nuclear material by the day. What disturbs Israel is the ominous combination of Iran's delivery systems, the nuclear track they're on and the rhetoric they use like "wiping Israel off the map."
Here's the timeline Israel sees for Iran getting a nuclear bomb. Since they've mastered the uranium enrichment process, it depends on which road Iran pursues. They can continue on the public and "safe" route by continuing to enrich uranium at their current rate of about 2 kilograms a day. At this rate, he says Iran can have a bomb in two to three years. However, if Iran decides to go a more aggressive route with likely negative public relations consequences, they could expel the I.A.E.A. inspectors. This would allow them to significantly increase their uranium enrichment. In this scenario, he believes they could have enough nuclear material for a nuclear bomb by the end of 2009. Our "senior military source" stated most Western nations believe this current assessment is a credible timetable.
He pointed out Iran acquiring nuclear weapons presents both a regional and global problem. Within the region, it would provide a nuclear "umbrella" for Iran's allies Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. It would also destabilize moderate Middle East nations. Globally, it could skyrocket gas prices.
While Israel sees this as a global problem, much of the world he believes is in a state of denial. However, he still believes the "international community" could take decisive, timely and effective action. But the question remains, will it? This question remains one of the most pressing questions of our age with enormous consequences.
Next: How Iran is the head of the radical camp.