NATO is talking about making Georgia a member. NATO can say anything it wants, but it better be prepared to back up an invitation to Georgia with real armies. Because such an announcement would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Russia, which has warned the West that it's time to choose sides in the battle between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia.
The charter of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization stipulates that an attack on any member of NATO is an attack on the alliance. But will NATO risk a military confrontation with Russia over Georgia, even if Georgia is a member? I contend that it won't. Before Russian tanks entered South Ossetia, the Kremlin knew the West didn't have the stomach for war. And I would be very surprised if Ukraine is now admitted into NATO, because NATO does not want to be dragged into the coming dust up between Moscow and Kiev.
So what is the point of NATO, if it's not prepared to fight?
Good question.
NATO was founded as a defensive deterrent after World War Two, when it was feared the Red Army might overrun Western Europe. And NATO worked, in large part because Western Europe was motivated by fear of invasion. But with the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO has become like an out of shape retired athlete. There's a lot of bluster, but not a lot of fire in the belly for strenuous physical activity.
The Kremlin has calculated this already.
10 French soldiers were killed in Afghanistan earlier this week. And what's been the response of the French people and media? "What the heck are we doing in Afghanistan?" Apparently, the threat of Islamic terrorism isn't enough.
I say that there is in fact very little, if anything, most Western Europeans would be willing to die for today, outside of their own borders. Police actions, like helping in Afghanistan, fly with the European public only for as long as the casualties stay low.
The norm for the world is selfishness and self-interest, and this is especially true in wealthy, aging Western Europe. And I sincerely doubt Western Europe will be sending its shrinking armies into the Caucasus to die for the freedom of some former Soviet subjects.
So, NATO had better not threaten or dare Russia unless it is actually prepared to fight. And if it's not willing to fight, what is the point of NATO?