Forty-one states have wrapped up their primary elections. The latest batch - from Alaska to Florida to Vermont - tells us something we should well know by now when it comes to the 2010 midterm elections: this is a volatile election cycle in which the only thing predictable is its unpredictability.
Up to the last minute, pundits and pollsters predicted Florida's Attorney General Bill McCollum would outdo wealthy businessman Rick Scott in the Republican primary for governor. In the end, Scott defeated McCollum in the most costly primary on record - more than $70 million between both candidates, businesses and special interest groups. What happens next? Scott must win over the party establishment that backed McCollum. His Democratic opponent, Alex Sink, begins the general election campaign as the favorite.
In Alaska, it could take another week before an official winner emerges from the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Lisa Murkowski and Joe Miller. Murkowski trails Miller, an outsider with the backing of former Gov. Sarah Palin and the Tea Party. Again, some political prognosticators had already started pointing out Palin's hit-and-miss king/queen-maker record in the run-up to the primary. It was as if they were ready to write her political obituary. While the merits of her influence will be debated and scrutinized, Sarah Palin must have a smile on her face knowing that she may have helped to take down another Murkowski in Alaska politics. What happens next? Democrat Scott McAdams will challenge the declared winner of the Republican primary.
Finally, what about all this talk of 2010 being a terrible year for incumbents? Tell that Sen. John McCain. He won handily against challenger J.D. Hayworth. Hayworth's conservative bid forced McCain to take steps toward the right of his iconoclast moderate position, but it proved to be a tactic that worked. What's next? McCain, 74, has a Democratic challenger, Rodney Glassman. Politics Daily offers a snapshot of Glassman's resume: former vice mayor of Tucson, president of his own charity, a JAG lawyer in the Air Force, with a Ph.D and two master's degrees ... all at the ripe old age of 32. We here at Beltway Buzz are wondering, is it us or do McCain's challengers seem to get younger each cycle?
Only a dozen more primary elections remain on the calendar before we're fully into the general election cycle. We predict more unpredictability.